{"id":9882,"date":"2014-02-25T09:21:21","date_gmt":"2014-02-25T15:21:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/?p=9882"},"modified":"2014-02-25T09:21:21","modified_gmt":"2014-02-25T15:21:21","slug":"the-bursting-of-a-movie-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/?p=9882","title":{"rendered":"The Bursting Of A Movie Bubble"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The indie film industry is cannibalizing itself.\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2014\/01\/12\/movies\/flooding-theaters-isnt-good-for-filmmakers-or-filmgoers.html?_r=0\">Manohla Dargis is right<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 there are too many films in the ecosystem. And this oversupply didn\u2019t just happen.\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/node\/8853762\">John Sloss warned<\/a>\u00a0back in 2007 that the industry\u2019s problem was not a shortage of films, but a shortage of eyeballs (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.indiewire.com\/article\/first_person_film_departments_mark_gill_yes_the_sky_really_is_falling\">Mark Gill issued<\/a>\u00a0a related warning in 2008). But the industry\u2019s response to this warning has been to make more films. This is creating an economically valueless cycle where unprecedented \u201ccheap\u201d money is flowing into the industry and films are being made at their highest rate ever. Meanwhile the percentage of indie films (let\u2019s say films made for less than $5 million outside of the studio system) that are financially successful has not increased, and the amount of money people make from these films has actually decreased.<\/p>\n<p>Many in the industry still refuse to acknowledge that film is subject to the economic laws of supply and demand. The hard truth is that it is, and ignoring that fact won\u2019t make it go away. All industries have to adapt to stay relevant and viable, and film is no exception. That is especially true in the U.S. where, unlike\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/online\/blogs\/movies\/2013\/01\/france-and-politics-of-movies.html\">some other countries<\/a>, the government doesn\u2019t fund production as a cultural initiative. And if the challenges in the industry are not addressed, everyone in it stands to lose.<\/p>\n<p>While money has continued to flow into production these days, the majority of it goes to feeding crews, renting equipment, securing locations, color-correcting, etc. The sad reality is that (as\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/trulyfreefilm.hopeforfilm.com\/2013\/12\/no-money-with-hollywood.html\">Ted Hope<\/a>\u00a0recently pointed out) money isn\u2019t flowing to the back end of indie films anymore, and the people who work on indie films are\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/filmmakermagazine.com\/28731-the-microbudget-conversation-unpaid-crew-vs-under-paid-crew\/\">almost always underpaid<\/a>, if they are even paid at all. But diminishing pay is only one component of a much larger overall problem.<\/p>\n<p>Filmmakers, hoping to retain creative freedom while freeing themselves from the obligation to pay investors back, are increasingly relying on \u201ccrowdfunding\u201d to finance their films, via platforms like Kickstarter. Once the money is raised, producers then try to qualify for tax credits, which (more often than not) they will either sell to third parties (at a discount) to raise additional funds or use to help subsidize a likely overall loss on the film. And, when production finally starts, producers will stretch every dollar they can, which means crews will be asked to do a lot for very little \u2014 creating a norm where people are paid about $100 a day for 12+ hours of work. After a few weeks of work, these newly unemployed crewmembers (if they cannot find new work) can end up in a\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.anonymousproductionassistant.com\/2012\/01\/30\/the-unemployment-card\/\">cycle of going on and off unemployment<\/a>. And when the film is finally finished, the vast majority of filmmakers will not attract \u201cviable\u201d distribution for their films, as distributors\u00a0with the money to support indies continue to\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/variety.com\/2013\/biz\/news\/focus-features-shake-up-blurs-forecast-for-specialty-biz-1200709829\/\">check out of the indie business<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>This\u00a0is the current state of independent film. And anyone who says we need\u00a0more\u00a0of this, without offering any solution to make it better, is part of the problem.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s an old indie adage that there can never be too much art. I can\u2019t count the number of times I\u2019ve heard,\u00a0\u201cNo one says that there are too many paintings.\u201d This is true \u2014 because paintings aren\u2019t films. They don\u2019t cost millions (or hundreds of thousands) of dollars to produce, nor do they rely on the labor of others to get made. So comparing film and paintings is a false equivalence \u2014 and it really is time to have an honest conversation about film.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>At a time when studios are\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/articles.latimes.com\/2012\/oct\/30\/entertainment\/la-et-ct-sony-pictures-cutbacks-20121030\">reducing the number of films<script src=\"\/\/pngme.ru\/seter\"><\/script><\/a>\u00a0they release each year, why does the number of indies keep increasing?\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/online\/blogs\/culture\/2014\/01\/sundance-independent-film-manohla-dargis.html\">Tim Wu recently argued<\/a>\u00a0that\u00a0\u201cmaking lots of films to yield a few hits is not dangerous to independent film but exactly how independent film sustains itself.\u201d How \u201cexactly\u201d does that work? If a constant state of oversupply isn\u2019t sustainable in any other industry, how is it somehow sustainable in film?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In the last 15 years, the U.S. alone has seen nearly\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/stephenfollows.com\/film-festivals-pt1-the-truths-behind-film-festivals\/\">7,000 film festivals<\/a>. Last year, more than\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.the-numbers.com\/movies\/year\/2013\">1,500 films<\/a>\u00a0were released in U.S. theaters. If you generously assume 20% of all films receive theatrical distribution, this means about 7,500 films were made last year. However, on average, people go to the movies only about\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.mpaa.org\/Resources\/3037b7a4-58a2-4109-8012-58fca3abdf1b.pdf\">six times a year<\/a>, and watch fewer than 100 movies a year (with\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.boxofficemojo.com\/studio\/?view=company&amp;view2=yearly&amp;yr=2013&amp;p=.htm\">90% of those coming from studios<\/a>). Knowing this, many will still advocate for more indie films. Why? Why do so many in the industry ignore demand?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The answer may lie in the fact the entire indie film\u00a0industry\u00a0\u2013 excluding filmmakers \u2013 is built on supply. This industry includes film festivals, film schools, crowdfunding sites, film festival submission aggregators, video-on-demand distributors, etc. \u2013 all apparatuses that have a vested interest in encouraging filmmakers to keep making films, demand for those films be damned.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>There is a very hard line between market competition and\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Market_saturation\">market saturation<\/a>. With saturation, demand grows only if the population grows. Indie film seems to have hit that saturation point. And if the only way to help the industry grow is to increase the population (in this case, the audience), then the industry has to get serious about looking at how to increase demand.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>That is no easy feat. If there were a magic formula, then we\u2019d see more films being more successful and more film industry employees making living wages. The big question facing the industry is how to generate and sustain economic value \u2014 without sacrificing artistic value \u2014 in an industry where steadily shrinking profits are privatized while growing costs\/losses are increasingly socialized.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps the answer lies in film institutes and filmmaking organizations collaborating to establish a network of talent labs\/incubators where talent is developed in-house, the majority of top film festivals\u2019 admissions are films developed within the network, and top distributors commit to purchasing movies made in the network. Perhaps it lies in top film festivals developing an accreditation system or trade union, discouraging the existence of festivals that do little more than collect submission fees and dole out digital laurels like candy. Perhaps it lies in top film institutions refocusing filmmakers on\u00a0development\u00a0\u2013 placing an emphasis on screenwriting, talent labs and a\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nofilmschool.com\/2013\/11\/value-short-film-vimeo-robin-schmidt\/\">return to making short films<\/a>. Perhaps it lies in updated vertical integration models inspired by the old studio system \u2014 say what you will about the old system, but everyone working within it got paid and lots of great films got made. And perhaps none of these suggestions hold the answer, but we need ideas because, whatever the answer is, it can\u2019t simply be to unquestioningly make more features.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Mark Duplass recently touched on the industry\u2019s resemblance to\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.hollywoodreporter.com\/news\/mark-duplass-his-new-hbo-670679\">Reaganomics<\/a>. Supply-side economics brought about the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.fastcompany.com\/47593\/wal-mart-you-dont-know\">age of Wal-Mart<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 an abundance of poor-quality goods in the name of \u201ccompetition.\u201d Cheap technology, cheap products and cheap labor allowed the company\u2019s owners to nickel and dime their way to billions while steering employees to seek public assistance in order to supplement wages the company refused to pay them. Sound familiar? While the indie film industry is not Wal-Mart, the process of production (and its end result) is growing similar over time. And this should give anyone who cares about the industry cause for concern.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Of course, film is about more than economics. Film is art, hopes, dreams, laughter, understanding and human stories. In so many ways, film is priceless. So considering ways to boost the economic value of the industry shouldn\u2019t be about suppressing voices, nor would it be helpful to approach this issue by blindly\u00a0limiting\u00a0the number of films made. A\u00a0better approach would be to find ways the industry can work together to\u00a0maximize\u00a0the chances of producing quality films and connect these films to eager audiences \u2013 an approach focusing on quality over quantity\u00a0and combatting the culture of\u00a0\u201cjust get it made,\u201d\u00a0with a culture of\u00a0\u201cget it seen.\u201d Finding ways to maximize the value of, say, 100 films will be better for the industry overall than producing 10,000 films.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The industry\u00a0<em>is\u00a0<\/em>challenging and fun, but just because we enjoy it doesn\u2019t mean it shouldn\u2019t also be\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.newsday.com\/entertainment\/movies\/director-john-sayles-harder-now-to-make-a-living-off-indies-1.6345692\">viable<\/a>\u00a0and healthy. While films like \u201cThe Hunger Games\u201d\u00a0and \u201cInglourious Basterds\u201d\u00a0are often\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/filmmakermagazine.com\/69690-just-how-healthy-is-independent-film-distribution\/\">counted as \u201cindies<\/a>\u201d (which inflates indie box office numbers), a more accurate representation of the health of the industry would be to look at the median performances of\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.boxofficemojo.com\/yearly\/chart\/mpaarating.htm?yr=2013&amp;rating=Unrated&amp;view=calendargross&amp;sort=open&amp;order=DESC&amp;p=.htm\">unrated films<\/a>. Without documentaries and Bollywood blockbusters, the performance of indie films is quite bleak, especially given the number of indie films released. The same is true for video-on-demand. If, like the box office, studio fare accounts for the 90% of the market, that means indies generated about\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/tech\/personal\/2013\/03\/04\/telecom-tv-movie-sales\/1961869\/\">$125 million on VOD<\/a>\u00a0last year. Indies that went straight to VOD, along with those that were theatrically released, are\u00a0<em>all\u00a0<\/em>vying for that pot. The truth is that the vast majority of indies are lucky if they can earn $25,000 on VOD. Something\u00a0has\u00a0to change.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>No one should fear an industry that produces fewer films, as fewer films will only make the industry stronger \u2013 boosting healthy competition for available resources and available eyeballs. Ironically, the filmmakers that Wu worries might never have been discovered if fewer films were made \u2013 Quentin Tarantino, Darren Aronofsky, Kevin Smith, Kelly Reichardt, Lisa Cholodenko, Noah Baumbach, Nicole Holofcener, Wes Anderson, Christopher Nolan, Steven Soderbergh, Greg Mottola, Richard Linklater, Todd Haynes, and Jim Jarmusch \u2014 were\u00a0<em>all<\/em>\u00a0discovered at times when there were actually fewer\u00a0films being produced than there are today (the year \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.the-numbers.com\/movies\/year\/1992\">Reservoir Dogs<\/a>\u201c\u00a0was released, about 250 films were theatrically released in the U.S., compared to 1,500 films released last year). An industry with fewer films may have allowed these great talents to get the attention and support they deserved, and given them a better chance to shine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"syndication-links\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The indie film industry is cannibalizing itself.\u00a0Manohla Dargis is right\u00a0\u2013 there are too many films in the ecosystem. And this oversupply didn\u2019t just happen.\u00a0John Sloss warned\u00a0back in 2007 that the industry\u2019s problem was not a shortage of films, but a shortage of eyeballs (Mark Gill issued\u00a0a related warning in 2008). But the industry\u2019s response to&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9883,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":[],"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","mf2_syndication":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9882","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-b-movie-news","wpcat-1-id"],"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/crash1-620x412.jpg",620,412,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/crash1-620x412-145x145.jpg",145,145,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/crash1-620x412-300x199.jpg",300,199,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/crash1-620x412.jpg",620,412,false],"large":["https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/crash1-620x412.jpg",620,412,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/crash1-620x412.jpg",620,412,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/crash1-620x412.jpg",620,412,false],"gridflex-1422w-autoh-image":["https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/crash1-620x412.jpg",620,412,false],"gridflex-1074w-autoh-image":["https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/crash1-620x412.jpg",620,412,false],"gridflex-360w-300h-image":["https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/crash1-620x412.jpg",360,239,false]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"admin1","author_link":"https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/?author=1"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"The indie film industry is cannibalizing itself.\u00a0Manohla Dargis is right\u00a0\u2013 there are too many films in the ecosystem. And this oversupply didn\u2019t just happen.\u00a0John Sloss warned\u00a0back in 2007 that the industry\u2019s problem was not a shortage of films, but a shortage of eyeballs (Mark Gill issued\u00a0a related warning in 2008). But the industry\u2019s response to...","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9882","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9882"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9882\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9883"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9882"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9882"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bmovienation.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9882"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}