Casey Schuler: I hate this bug.
Sam Daniels: Oh, come on, Casey. You have to admire its simplicity. It’s one billionth our size and it’s beating us.
Casey Schuler: So, what do you want to do, take it to dinner?
Sam Daniels: No.
Casey Schuler: What, then?
Sam Daniels: Kill it.
“Outbreak” released in 1995, Directed by Wolfgang Petersen starring Dustin Hoffman, Rene Russo, Kevin Spacey, Donald Sutherland and Cuba Gooding Jr.
The movie Outbreak tells the story of an Ebola-like virus a virus called Motaba, which causes a deadly fever that is discovered in the Central African jungle. To keep the virus a secret, U.S.Army officers Donald McClintock and William Ford destroy the camp where soldiers were infected. Twenty-eight years later, Colonel Sam Daniels,(played by the always energetic Dustin Hoffman) an Army virologist, is sent to investigate an outbreak in Zaire. Through the illegal importation of a monkey the virus arrives in the USA. Soon with the help of his soon be ex-wife (played by Rene Russo) Daniels is battling the virus before it consumes the entire continent.
Life imitates movies, or maybe it’s the other way around. Well, anyways a pesky virus, by the name Corona has shown up on our doorsteps. It would not have come at a worse time for the movie theater business. Not as a virulent as the bug in Outbreak but concerning, nonetheless.
In 2019, the movie business crowed that the international box office soared to a record $42.5 billion dollars. But the celebration of 2019 by the global movie industry has quickly been replaced by the gloom of 2020 because of that coronavirus. Globally public health officials are now calling this outbreak a global pandemic. The Coronavirus has forced the cancellation of SXSW, video gaming tournaments and I suspect the boom may be lowered on Cinemacon coming up at the end of March. Considering the key demographic that is the most susceptible to this virus is males over fifty, Cinemacon and its organizers should take note.
To date, this virus, which causes the respiratory illness known medically as COVID-19, had infected over 100,000 and claimed more than 3,560 lives.
Movie theaters have been shut in China for weeks, but the virus is beginning to hit and hit hard the moviegoing in South Korea, Italy, and even Japan, the world’s third-biggest movie market. Some analysts believe COVID-19 could already result in a loss of at least $5 billion from diminished box office revenue and impacted production. That number is bound to grow as communal events are beginning to be canceled and the public is being warned to stay at home.
In China, the world’s second-largest territory in terms of the gross box office, 70,000 movie theaters remain closed due to the outbreak of the Coronavirus; the release of new movies has stalled and globally the movie industry is taking a huge hit. Let’s make a comparison which really should hit home. Movie ticket sales in the traditional Chinese New Year holiday period, last year was $1.76 billion, this year 2020 the New Years Box Office was a rather slim $4.2 million. Theaters maybe be shut for weeks if not months.
This week the distributors and producer of the James Bond movie, No Time To Die made the hard decision to move its proposed April release to November. While hard for theaters to swallow, staying the course of this classic series would have most likely meant box office disaster.
The reality of the coronavirus outbreak, which continues to spread hit the team behind the Bond picture hard. 70,000 Chinese Movie Theaters are currently shut down as the country battles the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus Theaters are being closed in Japan, Korea, Italy, France and soon other countries will follow, this does not make this an economic climate skewed to success. If released in April, this could have meant disaster at the box office and the possible demise of this beloved tentpole franchise.
No Time to Die is MGM’s biggest release of 2020, and the studio needs it to pull in huge worldwide grosses. No grosses…. probably no more MGM.
James Bond is an international phenomenon. Each of Daniel Craig’s Bond movies has made more than 70 percent of its money outside the U.S. and Canada, with 2015’s Spectre grossing a staggering $679 million internationally, versus $200 million domestically.
With MGM stalling the release of Bond, will others follow suit? My guess is that Disney’s Mulan is the next to be delayed. Mulan due out March 27 features many Chinese stars Liu Yifei, Jet Li, and Gong Li, along with the Hong Kong action legend Donnie Yen. What happens to the May release of Black Widow, Paramount’s A Quiet Place 2, and Universals Fast & Furious 9? These are new waters we are wading into.
A more than strong concern is that studios will start crowing about the need for audiences to see these movies in a timely manner and will they use this as an excuse to drive home the case for day and date. They will scream these movies need audiences, but the audiences are afraid to go to the theaters.
In mid-April the grand dame of cinematic events, The Cannes Film Festival will reveal its selection, as Italy descends in a level 3 epidemic with France following closely behind. The Festival is due to run on May 12-23rd. It will no doubt be impacted. MIPTV, a television sales show also held in Cannes shutdown this week. A statement issued by the Festival organizers states, “The Festival de Cannes is monitoring carefully the developments and the latest guidelines provided by the local, national and international authorities regarding the coronavirus and is in direct link with the Alpes-Maritimes’ administrative office, As of today, it is still premature to express assumptions on an event scheduled in two months and a half.” With the cancellation of SXSW, the likelihood that Cannes is canceled or postponed runs high.
For a business that is under siege, this could have not come at a worse time. The sad story of 90-year-old Goodrich Quality Theaters may become commonplace. The industry is facing pressures that are to say the very least is overwhelming. Even in the best-case scenario, the economic impact of the coronavirus, and the fear it generates among moviegoers is real. I am afraid that the fear being created is much worse than the virus itself. The danger that the movie-going habit is going to be broken by increasing fear of communal space, looms large. We as an industry must be prepared to re-invent our offerings and out way of doing business once this fear subsides. This virus will be contained, but what I see happening is that the byproduct, a sense for foreboding and panic will be equally hard to eradicate.
