This is going to be more than rough. The ride that theaters are on now is tough, more tough than any they have faced before. It is bad enough waging a war of survival on one front but having to it on four fronts is to say the least daunting. In writing this I recalled the contributors and leadership of showmen like the Rembusch family, Marvin Troutman, Henry Plitt, Irvin Levin and Jack Armstrong. It was on the shoulders of men like these that the modern business of exhibition was built.We can focus on the mistakes of the past or we can look towards what is possible. Before we do that though, a proper assessment of where we are now is probably a necessity. The news of the last couple of weeks in regard to windows collapsing, the machinations of Warner Brothers in an attempt to buttress HBOMAX and a realization that as a result of COVID theaters had a 71.5% reduction in business this year. Many journalists are expending a massive amount of ink proclaiming the death of movie theaters. I think there is hope, but as a good friend I think I owe it to the movies to tell what I think is the truth.

The first realization is a simple one, Hollywood is going its own way. They have one concern and one concern only, themselves. They do not care about theaters; they feel that streaming will fill the void and that’s the direction they are all heading. They live and die by the rule of accountants. Now if you think what is unfolding with the studios is primarily a result of this vile pandemic, you are wrong. These plans have been in play for at least 30 years now. A few analysts feel that it was in the year 1997 that the studios started moving away from even thinking about what was good for the movie experience. The movies started declining and became story diluted. An escalation of the percentage of box office rental started occurring, they began to make globally focused movies, and they stopped financing their own movies. They began playing with other people’s money and only believed in widening markets and not cultivating the domestic market. They knew streaming was coming and firmly and absolutely pointed the ship in that direction. They paid for their salaries, their growth, and made their profit firmly off the backs of the theaters and when you stumbled, through no fault of your own, they abandoned you. They are gone.

Now I think once the streaming bubble bursts, they will come back hat in hand. I think this is going to take 3 years, but by that time 60% of American theaters will have fallen due to their business practices. Those that remain should remember well what Hollywood has done and the pain they have inflicted.

Please realize that many in the audience have become weary of Hollywood’s messaging. Forty percent of this country is conservative. They no longer believe Hollywood is reflecting their values and in many ways are right. In a recent article on the demise of the theater, a reader provided the following perspective.

While I feel bad for the movie theaters…I’ve lost my appetite for Hollywood completely. Their product is just not good enough to put up with the foul mouthed, uneducated actors who have felt entitled to school us on everything from our political opinions, our patriotism, and our understanding of history. Good bye Hollywood…Just not interested in hearing any more from you.

This is an opinion held by 40% of the market. Whether you agree with the position or not, this is a market reality and a market reality that for the most part is being ignored. When you manage to alienate this percentage of the market, you have a problem. Again, this is a problem that Hollywood has saddled the theaters with.

Another issue is the rise of technology. Hi-sense is now marketing a 100-inch TV screen for $4,000. In two years, it will be $800 dollars, this is a problem. A deep problem. Imagine having homes that have a 10-foot screen in their family room. From a ratio perspective, given that the average family room is 404 feet you are getting pretty close to a theater experience. Here is the perspective of another reader from the same article on the demise of theaters.

I’m pretty sure the last time I went to a theater I saw Jurassic Park (first one). I spent about 25 or 30 dollars, counting concessions, for two of us to see a movie I could have bought for the same or less money on DVD. I don’t know where the admissions money goes to but it is way too much for my budget. I’ve got a big screen and Klipsch speakers. Who needs a theater?

Hollywood firmly understands that home video technology is creating de facto home movie theaters and in those home theaters the future lies.

Last night I went to a private screening of “Christmas Vacation” where fewer than 20 people attended. In the middle of the movie someone had a bit of a coughing fit. Pop Corn Kernels probably to blame. The first thing that came to mind was the word COVID. I then realized that it is going to take the movie going audience a long time to emotionally get over the events of 2020. While most of us will have been vaccinated by say mid-summer the lingering suspicion of large enclosed spaces will remain. This will have a significant expression in the box office post COVID. I do not know if people will ever be over the events of the past year.

The four pillars of this crisis are bad storytelling, rise of home technology, fear of the pandemic and finally the loss of a theatrical window. Two of the crises have been created by Hollywood, one by simple market evolution and the final one is something so unexpected and something so changing it is hard to even comprehend how to address it.

The weaning away from Hollywood is a necessity. The only way to counter this day and date misstep is to present a product that has at least a 90 day window and then to ally yourselves with a streamer who will respect the placement of the theaters in the motion picture ecosystems. A proper and defined window with participation financially in streaming also addresses the issue of advancement of technology. How you address the fear created by COVID, I do not have a ready answer for. It’s a base fear that no study or statistics will assuage. Humans have built in a natural fear of the strangers, COVID has deepened it.

In the meantime as we start to contemplate the re-invention of the movies, my thoughts turn to the large screens now sit in empty fields waiting for the first blush of spring. These behemoths of movie going for the time being will be the foundation of movie going and will be the first foray in the war to rebuild movie going. There are many stories to be told and the rebuilding of community is going to be imperative as we relaunch of our society as a whole.

Exhibitors should be leading this re-invention of society, but first you have to forever shake your Hollywood habit. It is a habit that has turned out to be lethal.