This week I took another look at Michael Bay’s movie Armageddon. Made in 1998, for a budget of $140 million, the movie deals with a group of wildcat drillers and their attempts to blow up an asteroid which threatens to eliminate all life on earth. The movie’s main plot motivation is the prevention of this, which more than a few times is referred in dialog as an extinction event. For those reader who have a consistently sunny disposition, an extinction event is a widespread and rapid decrease in the biodiversity on Earth. Such an event is identified by a sharp change in the diversity and abundance of multicellular organisms. We all realize that this green planet of ours has had a couple of these events, including one that killed off all the dinosaurs.
By the end of Armageddon, Bruce Willis saves the planet, Ben Affleck marries the girl and the Earth is saved. It is a fun and well made movie that is well worth revisiting. Globally the movie took in about $550 million globally.
The fabric of our own society is undergoing a period of unprecedented accelerated technological innovation and these innovations have led to the extinction of numerous forms of advertising, various forms of entertainment as well as forms of socialization. For a few key businesses like linear television and nightclubs are facing their own extinction event. Our gender roles, dating habits and family structures are being re-shaped constantly. The whole idea of nations are changing and changing more than rapidly.
It is more than difficult to try to keep up. This acceleration has created a dangerous stew of both opportunity and fear.
In 2013, the progenitors of the movie blockbusters Steven Spielberg and George Lucas predicted the movie industry as we know it would “implode” if in the near future, too many pricey blockbuster movies flopped….this could be deemed for this fragile business an extinction level event. 2018 seems to have all the elemental risk in order for this to happen, just check out the number of tentpole movies in release this year. Here is what the Summer 2018 has to offer;
Starting third week of May we have Deadpool 2, Solo A Star Wars Story, Ocean’s 8,The Incredibles 2, Jurassic World , Ant Man and The Wasp, Hotel Transylvania , Mama Mia Here We Go Again, Barbie, Mission Impossible Fallout. The Purge 4, Skyscraper, Sicario2 , The Predator, Scarface and Hereditary
Further to these would be summer blockbusters add the following entries in the fall release schedule; Halloween, Mowgli, Overlord , Independence Day 3, Gambit (an X-Men sire), X Mean :Dark Phoenix, The Invisible Man, Venom (a Spider-Man spinoff), The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts 2, Creed 2, Transformers:Bumblebee , Wreck-it Ralph 2, Uprising by original X-Men director Bryan Singer, Aquaman, and Mary Poppins Returns. (Christmas).
So you heard it here folks, 2018 the studios will see the release over 40 sure to thrill tentpole movies. What’s really interesting is that 20 of these movies are spaced a week apart from a potential competitor for that key blockbuster dollar. When Deadpool 2 comes out, moviegoers will only have a week before Solo hits the screen, The years blockbuster release schedule is reminiscent of a Friday afternoon on the 405. hot crowded and frustrating. Because of the density of the release, there is the potential for big casualties. There are too many massive movies and not enough people to watch them.
As last summer shows us less people are watching movies in theaters, so why are the studios making beaucoup bucks. Well it’s pretty simple, they are hosing both consumers and the theatre owners. The average price of a ticket has nearly doubled, from $4.35 in 1995 to $8.97 in 2017. Right now, in 2016, the average ticket price is the highest it’s ever been, $8.66. …plus they are demanding higher box office percentages from the theatres. One of the key factors at play here is that the studios are not the ones financing the production of their movies, but just making fat distribution fees (by the way all their expenses come off the top)so the bigger the movies the better, in their way of thinking putting out smaller films…..well that’s silly in their greedy minds because of the fact they make less fees from box office. As a result of this short sightedness outlook the lower end and the middle of the movie exhibition industry is dying . Those cheaper comedies, thrillers, and dramas aren’t being made anymore for the movie theatres, but instead are quickly relegated to Netflix or Amazon, even though their smaller budgets make it easier for them to turn a profit but another reminder…smaller distribution fees.
So if 2018 could possibly mean the end of blockbusters (for awhile anyways) or or Mr. Spielberg and Mr. Lucas could be wrong and these movies they will still do great. There are dangers in both outcomes.
Hollywood is now making movies for a global audience. They remember that Pacific Rim only did $46 million domestically but it did make $114 million in China. I sure the news of an impending trade war with China chilled many in Hollywood to the bone. Rumors are abounding that China might decide to fire a shot over the bow of the U.S.S. America by limited access to the exploding Chinese theatrical market. That event alone will cause a domino effect that Hollywood will find it almost impossible to recover from.
Remember Justice League, With shameful (I should be so lucky) take of $656 million in global receipts, the movies became one of the year’s biggest financial disappointments at the box office and another poorly received entry in the studio’s struggling attempts to get their shared DC Comics cinematic universe on firmer footing. Many claim the Justice League failure was due to the inertia or lack there of Batman v Superman. The Wonder Woman movies, based on another character from the DC universe was a deep success. Many claim that like Black Panther this was due from the fact that you were giving audiences something fresh.
My take is that audiences are looking for the unique and trying to avoid the formulaic. I think a big tell for this summer is what the next Avengers does in April. Hollywood has hyper inflated the economy and we are probably on a bubble of blockbusters that might burst. If it does burst theatres should start looking for market alternatives and begin to redefine the product paradigm.
The sword of Damocles hangs mightily over Hollywood. The movie industry has already seen a significant shift in its power base due to the litany of accusations of sexual harassment and sexual victimization. Hollywood power elite has shown itself to be vulnerable and as well mightily corrupt. Leadership vacuums are cropping up everywhere. Within this lie the seeds of change.
It is going to be a more than bumpy summer. If the runner stumbles and many feel Hollywood will, then look out for a whole new game.
If issues like these concerns you, as it should please join the Independent Cinema Alliance.
To join please go to www.cinemaalliance.org
